This age group is projected to decline as a share of total population for most of the projection period, from 66.6 percent in 2021 to 63.2 percent by 2040, and to increase slowly thereafter to reach 63.3 percent by 2046. The annual growth rate of the senior age group is projected to slow from an average of 3.2 percent over 202131 to 1.0 percent by the end of the projection period. All three projection scenarios for Ontario reflect a continuation of the gains recorded in average life expectancy. During the last two years, travel restrictions and immigration initiatives targeting candidates already in Canada under temporary residence permits have slowed the increase in the number of non-permanent residents in Ontario. The current age structure of each region has a strong influence on projected regional births and deaths. The following sections discuss assumptions and methodology for the components of net migration, including immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration. The growth rate of the population aged 1564 is projected to quickly trend lower initially to an average of 0.8 percent annually over the late 2020s, a pace of change similar to that observed over the 2010s. Under the low scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to decline initially from 1.30 in 2021-22, but to reach 1.30 again in 2045-46. Prince Edward is projected to have less than 50 percent of its population aged 1564 by 2046. This map shows the evolution of natural increase by census division in Ontario over the projection period 2021-46. This area chart shows the annual contribution of natural increase and net migration to Ontarios population growth from 1971 to 2046. In 2016, for the first time, seniors accounted for a larger share of population than children aged 014. Data Visualization: Canada's population clock (real-time model) Data Visualization: Quarterly demographic estimates, provinces and territories: Interactive dashboard. Census divisions where population is projected to increase by over 40% include: Middlesex, Oxford, Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe, Waterloo, Halton, Peel, Ottawa. This chart shows historical annual emigration levels from Ontario and residual deviations in Statistics Canadas estimates from 1971 to 2021, as well as projections of emigration under three scenarios to 2046. More than a third of the US population, from the Midwest to the East Halton (56.2%), Peel (51.5%) and Durham (38.7%) are projected to grow faster than the average for Ontario, while Yorks population is projected to grow at a pace (35.3%) slower than the province as a whole. Census divisions with over 70% projected growth in number of seniors over 2021-2046 include: Waterloo, Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe, Halton, Peel, York, Durham, Ottawa, Prescott & Russell. Toronto Population 2023 2,903,456 The estimated 2023 population of Toronto is . Projections for each of the 49 census divisions are for the reference scenario only. We believe using the recent years' figures (see the table in next section) will make the estimation more accurate. As baby boomers continue to turn age 65, the growth in population aged 1564 slows until 202728 and then accelerates over the remainder of the projection period. In 2021, there were 34 percent more women than men in the 75+ age group. The projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions. The medium-growth or reference scenario is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The number of births has been fairly stable, and deaths have been rising, resulting in natural increase declining from 52,000 to 20,000 over the last decade. 2021 Census of Population. The year-to-year change in the total number of NPRs is accounted for as a component of population growth in the projections. In the low scenario, net interprovincial migration is set at 47,000 for 2021-22, rising to 5,000 by 2026-27, and remaining at that level for the rest of the projections. This line chart shows the historical total fertility rate of Ontario women from 1979 to 2019, and projections under the three scenarios for 2021-2046. By 204546, 32 census divisions are projected to experience negative natural increase. This was followed. Population is projected for each of the 49 census divisions for the reference scenario only. Whether a given sub-nation is a province or a territory depends upon how its power and authority are derived. These determinants vary substantially among the 49 census divisions that comprise the six geographical regions of Ontario and drive significant differences in demographic projections. The median age for women climbs from 42.0 to 43.2 years over the projection period, while for men it is projected to increase from 39.4 to 40.9 years. Four census divisions of Central Ontario are projected to continue experiencing population growth significantly above the provincial average over the projection period: Waterloo at 55.5 percent, Wellington at 51.9 percent, Dufferin at 51.1 percent, and Simcoe at 44.7percent. Census divisions with between 50% and 70% projected growth in number of seniors over 2021-2046 include: Essex, Grey, Middlesex, Elgin, Perth, Oxford, Haldimand-Norfolk, Brant, Hamilton, Niagara, Toronto, Muskoka, Kawartha Lakes, Hastings, Lanark. The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to increase significantly from 2.7 million, or 18.1 percent of population, in 2021 to 4.4 million, or 21.8 percent, by 2046. Since 2015, net interprovincial migration to Ontario had been positive. By 2046, it is projected that there will be 24 percent more women than men in the 75+ age group. The annual number of intraprovincial migrants in Ontario has fluctuated within the 350,000 to 460,000 range over the past 20 years. The number of people aged 2544 is projected to increase during the projection period, from 4.1 million in 2021 to 5.5 million by 2046, while their share of population is projected to initially increase from 27.6 to 28.9 percent by 2029, followed by a decline to 27.0 percent by 2046. The 65+ age group grows faster than the other two groups for most of the historical and the first half of the projection period, with a peak of 4.3% in 2011-12 and a low close to 0.9% in the early 2040s. Similarly, a region with a large share of young adults in its population is expected to see more births than a region of similar size with an older age structure. There are also some Inuit people residing in the area. The British built trading posts along the Hudson Bay in the late 17th century. This update uses as a base the 2021 population estimates from Statistics Canada (released in January2022 and based on the 2016 Census) and includes changes in the projections to reflect the most recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration. In 2021, the highest share of children among regions was in the Northwest at 16.6percent; the Northeast had the lowest share at 14.5percent. Over 6.6 million people were living in the Toronto metropolitan area . Specifically, the projections use Statistics Canadas preliminary postcensal population estimates for July1, 2021 as a base. Statistics Canada. The number of Ontarians aged 1564 is projected to increase from 9.9 million in 2021 to 12.9 million by 2046. More than third of the US population is under air quality alerts, covering more than a dozen states from the Midwest to the East Coast, as smoke from Canadian wildfires sweeps across parts of the . In the high scenario, the net gain is projected at 150,000 in 2022-23, 16,000 in 2027-28, reaching 19,000 by 2045-46. By 2046, there will be more people in every single year of age in Ontario compared to 2021, with a sharp increase in the number of seniors. Births are also projected to increase over the projection period, fuelled in the short term by the passage of the baby boom echo (children of baby boomers) through peak fertility years, and subsequently by continued population growth driven by young immigrants. Oregon Town's Marijuana Boom Yields Envy in Idaho The metro area population of Oshawa in 2020 was 398,000, a 1.02% increase from 2019. In the high-growth scenario, life expectancy reaches 86.5 and 89.4 years in 2046 for males and females respectively. Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance projections. Sources: Statistics Canada for 19712021, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections. The low- and high-growth scenarios are set as a range of 50 percent above and below the reference scenario net gain in 202122 and 202223, 40 percent in 202324, 30 percent in 202425, and 20 percent over the rest of the projection period. For 202122, the reference scenario net gain is set at 100,000, followed by net gains of 110,000 in 202223, 60,000 in 202324, 40,000 in 202425, 30,000 in 202526, and 20,000 in 202627. The Treaty of Paris in 1763 ended the Seven Years' War and awarded most of the North American possessions of France to Britain. This results in the number of emigrants reaching 35,000 by 204546. Ontario Population 2023 | Canada Population Over the historical period, the net gain was very volatile, starting with values close to zero in the early 1970s, with a peak of 95,000 in 1988-89, a deep through of 54,000 in 1992-93, and another high level in 2017-18 at 78,000. In 1791, Quebec was split into the Canadas: Upper Canada was southwest of the St. Lawrence-Ottawa River confluence while Lower Canada was to the east. Ontario is one of 10 provinces of Canada and located in the east-central region of the county. After 2031, the growth in the number of seniors slows significantly. The population of Central Ontario is projected to grow by 1.33 million or 41.3percent, from 3.24million in 2021 to 4.57million in 2046. The number of people aged 4564 is projected to decline slightly until 2029, from 3.9 million in 2021 to 3.8 million. Immigration levels are projected to reach about 196,000 in Ontario by 2022-23, resulting in an immigration rate of 1.30 percent. It has very diverse culture thanks to migration history which brings many people from different countries to Toronto. During the historical period, the residual deviation ranged from 2,000 in 1987-88 to 22,000 in 2007-08. 2023. Ontario Population 2023 | Top Cities in Ontario - America Demografia This marks the first 12-month period in Canada's history where population grew by over 1 million people, and the highest annual population growth rate (+2.7%) on record since that . A general and common trend is that a growing proportion of women are giving birth in their 30s and early 40s. The overall decline in the fertility rate among young women is accompanied by a rise in fertility rates among older women. Highlights of the new 20212046footnote 1[1] projections for the reference scenario: The Ministry of Finance projections provide three growth scenarios for the population of Ontario to 2046. The 2046 line starts at around 100,000 each for both males and females at age zero with steep peak above 145,000 after age 20, followed by a gradual decrease to around 140,000 near age 40, and a further decline to age 95+. These are the same cohorts of women who postponed births during their 20s and are now having children in their 30s and early 40s. This is consistent with recent trends where males have recorded larger gains in life expectancy than females. Population of Ontario 2022, by age and sex Published by Statista Research Department , Nov 17, 2022 This statistic shows the population of Ontario, Canada in 2022, by age and sex. The older age groups will experience the fastest growth among seniors. Toronto Population 2023 | Canada Population Canada's largest metropolitan area is Toronto, in Ontario. A Place to Land, But Is it Still a Place to Grow? Ontario's Population The 2011 census found the population of Ontario was 12.85 million, up 5.7% from the 2006 population of 12.16 million. Growth of this age group is projected to pick up in the early 2030s, to reach 4.9 million by 2046. Over the projection period, growth in the number of children is projected to peak at 1.7% in the mid-2030s, ending at 1.2% by 2045-46. The growth of Ontarios population has been affected by the. The latest version is from January 2023. For 2021, the chart shows total population in millions for each of the regions as: Northwest 0.2, Northeast 0.6, Southwest 1.7, Central 3.2, GTA 7.1, East 1.9. Census divisions with between 22% and 27% seniors in 2046 include: Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Greater Sudbury, Essex, Elgin, Bruce, Perth, Oxford, Brant, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Simcoe, York, Frontenac. Stay up to date with what you want to know. However, while the North has recently seen modest net migration gains, its natural increase has turned negative. The youth share of total population is projected to increase initially from 12.5 percent in 2021 to 12.7 percent by 2024, followed by a gradual decline to 12.1 percent by 2046. However, by 2046 the share of children in every region is projected to be slightly lower than it is today. Large urban areas, especially the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), which receive most of the international migration to Ontario, are projected to experience the strongest population growth. Over the past 30 years, Ontario gained on average 11,500 non-permanent residents annually.